Annual inflation fell to 29.73%, while monthly CPI came in at 1.84%, below expectations. But in the same month, core prices rose 2.01%, producer prices 2.07%, and manufacturing prices 2.32%.
The real issue is this: companies do not experience headline inflation. They experience their own cost basket. For a business with a monthly cost base of TRY 10 million, a 2.32% increase instead of 1.84% means TRY 48,000 in additional cost pressure in just one month. Rather than loosening Q4 budgets based on expectations around the October 22 rate decision, we look at pricing and spending through the marginal value left after cost increases.
Before opening up your Q4 budget, recalculate your own cost basket. That is where the margin risk hidden by the headline number becomes visible.