Rising interest in November promotions can look like guaranteed sales growth. Yet PwC reports shopping intent rising from 87% to 94%, while the share planning to increase spending in real terms falls from 47% to 39%.
Participation and allocating budget to your brand are different decisions.
At Sellf, we assess campaigns across three dimensions:
- Shortlist: 61% start preparing before Black Friday week. Our reading: preference starts earlier, through clear product information, reviews and verifiable price advantages.
- Share of wallet: How much of the customer’s category budget do we capture? Order count and average basket value need this context.
- Contribution profit: What remains after product, advertising, commission, shipping and return costs?
A hypothetical example: TRY 10 million in campaign revenue at a 30% contribution margin leaves TRY 3 million. If revenue grows 20% but the margin falls to 20%, contribution drops to TRY 2.4 million. That’s TRY 2 million more revenue and TRY 600,000 less contribution.
How much additional contribution profit will your November campaign generate compared with running no campaign?